Intelligence isn’t always the limiting factor

It can get lost amid the AI excitement that there are other shortages in this world besides brainpower. I can think of a few other scarce resources: time… money… empathy… compassion… food… water… rare earth minerals… reliable observational data…. Intelligence can help ease some of these scarcities through efficiency, technological advancements, and social engineering. But in most cases, such improvements are limited by fundamental physics, ecology, and social dynamics.

Some problems are unpredictable by their very nature and are provably unsolvable. For example, chaos theory pioneer Edward Lorenz calculated in the 1960s that it’s impossible to forecast the weather more than about 2 weeks out (due to inherent feedback loops in the atmospheric system — the proverbial butterfly flapping its wings). Modern AI models are currently improving weather forecasts, but these gains will slow as they approach that fundamental barrier.

Other complex spaces like political systems, organizational dynamics, and financial markets have similarly chaotic elements that limit the possibilities of intelligent optimization.

I’m truly excited about some of the opportunities in the AI era as well as concerned about the many changes rapidly approaching. But let’s try to not get too carried away

Healthy air standards

“[When you] wash your hands [in] some building, you don’t have to say, ‘Well, I hope this building has clean water that won’t give me cholera.’ … because there are standards for that.”

But you do wonder if the building’s air will give you the flu or covid, because the analogous public health standards are not in place. Ventilation, air filters, and/or ultraviolet light could solve the problem, but right now “the air itself is effectively making people sick.”

-Carl Zimmer (via “99% Invisible” ep. 637)

The perils of people being nice to you

I finally read The Mom Test, a lovely little book about how to do effective customer research for startups. It kept reminding me of the quote that confirmation bias is the single biggest problem in business. The Mom Test adds the related finding that social norms are full of white lies, which help keep the peace but also mask the truth about bad ideas.

In other words, as a decision maker, you’re not only up against your own tendency to look for confirmatory evidence, you’re also up against everyone else’s tendency to give you confirmatory evidence as their way of being supportive.

The book also reminded me about all the other human needs and motivations that have so little to do with the presumed goal of maximizing the chance of business success. Autonomy, meaning, connection, learning, safety, creative expression and mastery… all needs that can be met regardless of whether a startup actually succeeds.

Being supportive is more important to most people than being honest or objective, so it’s really helpful to know how to dig for objective data when you need it.

Government by engineer

The mistake that engineers sometimes make is that they assume by destroying [inefficient] institutions, you would necessarily be able to replace them with something better, which is not always the case — and it also ignores a lot of the wisdom that accretes slowly within the idiosyncratic practices and byways of an institution. Institutions sometimes have a hard time expressing their wisdom, but oftentimes it’s there, and [although] the things that institutions preserve may indeed be antiquated by the standards of optimization, they have enduring values as well.

Franklin Foer (via Planetary Radio podcast, Sep 5, 2025)

AI is capable of creativity

I’m surprised how often I hear well-informed people argue that modern AI models are still “just repeating things that are in the training data.” This is simply not true. Large language models routinely solve math problems they have never seen, write poems that have never been written, and program software algorithms that are not in the training set.

Of course, these outputs are similar to things seen in the training data — but in the same way that humans mostly only solve math problems that are similar to ones we have seen, write poems that only use familiar elements of language, and write computer programs based on strategies we learned from other programs.

This is not to say that AI models have reached or exceeded the limit of what humans can do. For instance, I am not aware of any AI models that have invented entirely new fields of research. Indeed, AI models are not yet competitive with most (if not all) experienced professionals. But in terms of everyday creativity — which involves copying, combining, and transforming known ideas — current AI models are quite capable.

Part of the confusion may come from the need to “un-bundle creativity” as I wrote about previously. We may not be used to viewing creativity on a spectrum from “somewhat creative” to “as creative as an experienced professional.”

Another reason for misunderstanding may simply be our natural resistance to the idea that some of the things that used to be uniquely human are no longer so. (Though some animal species also exhibit creative problem solving.)

We might also see generic or cliché outputs from AI models and mistakenly attribute them to a lack of creativity. However, these generic responses likely come from models that are specifically trained to be neutral and multi-purpose. By default, popular systems do not veer far off the beaten path — for the same reason that most corporations do not hire erratic geniuses as spokespeople. They are still capable of creativity if prompted.

Finally, we might unnecessarily conflate creativity with agency. Part of being an artist is being moved — knowing what you want to create. Chatbots are designed to be assistants, only responding when prompted, so they do not have this type of intrinsic agency. A human needs to specify the goal and the constraints, but this still leaves plenty of room for the AI assistant to create novel solutions.

If we define the very concept of creativity as something only humans can do, then the word becomes mostly useless in discussions about AI. To meaningfully discuss the impact of the technology now, we need to acknowledge the spectrum of creativity and the AI models’ very real capabilities for creative problem solving and artistic expression.

Un-bundling intelligence

Something I hear a lot in debates about AI are variations of: “sure, this chatbot can [do online research, tutor you in chemistry, search for drug candidates, …], but it’s not really intelligent.”

A similar sentiment was common in the 1960s and ’70s when electronic computers were first becoming widespread. “Sure, it can solve thousands of equations in one second, but it’s not really intelligent.”

We would have previously said such a performance would make a person extraordinarily intelligent, but we needed to un-bundle this capability of super speedy calculation from “intelligence” so that the word could keep its everyday meaning as “what only humans can do”. The field of artificial intelligence has thus been getting the “intelligence” rug pulled out from under it for decades, as we discovered how to make computers ever smarter.

If “intelligence” is defined as mental abilities that only humans have, then saying that a chatbot is “not really intelligent” is a tautology — one equals one. We figured out how to make a computer do it and thus it no longer fits in this definition of “intelligent”. This doesn’t tell us anything about the more impactful questions of how this technology will affect the world.

In order to have more meaningful conversations about the new capabilities of AI systems, we need to get more comfortable with the un-bundling of intelligence and stop getting distracted by words whose meanings are ambiguous in the computer age.

Landscape photography prints

One of my photographs was recently featured in the Seattle Times. Someone asked if they could purchase prints, so I went ahead and created a storefront where you can order art prints and other products displaying my landscape photographs.

Robin Stewart Photography Studio

I consider it to be just a hobby, but I keep an eye out for beautiful scenes, and every now and then I get lucky. If you make a purchase, most of the money goes to the print shop and I get a small commission.

Definition of spirituality

“Spirituality is recognizing and celebrating that we are all inextricably connected to each other by a power greater than all of us, and that our connection to that power and to one another is grounded in love and compassion. Practicing spirituality brings a sense of perspective, meaning, and purpose to our lives.”

-Brené Brown (source)